Italian foreign policy

Priorities and challenges after the general elections

Shortly after the Italian general elections, many analysts predicted that the country should be prepared for a long negotiation process that could even take few months. After the negotiations, a new, unprecedented gov­erning-coalition took the responsibility to lead Italy for the next five years. In fact, the two most voted parties, the Five Stars Movement (Movimento Cinque Stelle, M5S) and the League (Lega), which expressed a strong anti-establishment and Eurosceptic rhetoric, merged their programmes and made an agreement for “changing the country.”

Írországi föderális unió?

Az ír kérdés európai szintre emelkedése

A brexit holtpontra jutása igen nagy mértékben a nemzeti követelések összecsapásának több mint egy évszázadon át táptalajául szolgáló és ezáltal az Egyesült Királyságot nem egyszer a polgárháború szélére sodró ír kérdés következményének tekinthető. Nem véletlen, hogy a tartós rendezéshez eddig csakis az európai egységesülés folyamata biztosított megfelelő kereteket – sőt, a britek valójában már a kezdet kezdetén tökéletesen tisztában voltak vele, hogy a déli, illetve az északi írek békés együttélése kizárólag nemzetek feletti keretek között valósítható meg.

Regional Dimensions of the Belt and Road Initiative

The aim of present paper is to analyse and compare different approaches to the challenges and opportunities that Europe and Asia face in terms of connectivity, especially in the light of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as well as the EU’s Asia-Europe connectivity plan. The paper primarily focuses on the economic, political, and geopolitical dimensions of the topics at hand. Firstly, the authors touch upon different approaches to connectivity and compare the EU’s connectivity plan and BRI. Secondly, the developments of BRI will be presented along with actual cases that show how BRI projects have been realized so far.

Outlook 2020

Perspectives for the next year from the Antall József Knowledge Centre Research Team

This year, New Years’ Eve will not only see a regular new year coming but the closing of a whole decade. The aggregate analysis of the AJRC research group points toward specific likely conclusions about the world which suggest 2020 to be a concluding year of the problems of the 2010s. Many of those issues that characterised international relations for quite some time have now reached a point of rest—though not resulted in a definitive outcome.

COVID-19: The fatally wounded Italian Tourism Industry must start thinking about its rebirth

Tourism in Italy accounts for 13% of its GDP, it generates more than EUR 232 billion and it represents one of the main drivers of the country’s economy, society and culture. The coronavirus-related state of emergency has provoked a serious crisis in the tourism sector as a whole, and the important and necessary restrictive measures aimed to stop the spread of the virus have been, in fact, responsible for the progressive closure of all touristic activities.

Global Demographic Outlook 2020 – Demographic Perspectives from the Antall József Knowledge Centre Research Team

Global population witnessed an unprecedented growth in recent decades. From reaching 4 billion in 1974, 6 billion in 1999 and 7.8 billion people this year, the world’s population is set to reach the 8-billion mark in the very near future. This rapid growth will affect less developed nations the most; however, in strong contrast, economically advanced countries across the globe will witness a sharp drop in population, due to a set of mutually-aligned trends. Fertility rates under the 2.0-2.1 threshold required for a stable reproduction rate, combined with an increasing life expectancy, mean that these states will not only have fewer citizens, but will also have to find a solution for the increasing pressure on their current pension system, as a declining number of workers will have to support a growing number of pensioners.

Az Egyesült Királyság nemzeti, európai és globális jövője a brexit után

Discussion on Europe’s Future in the post-COVID-19 era

National Perspectives

The European Union struggles to fight the recent period of different types of crises (polycrisis), as described by several books, papers and arguments in the scientific literature. The primary reasons of the European economic crisis are the global financial crisis of 2008, the Greek sovereign debt crisis, the prolonged reform process of the bank union and the lack of fiscal policy integration.

Nemzeti álláspontok Európa jövőjéről a poszt-COVID érában

A gazdasági válság hátterében a 2008-as világgazdasági változások, a görög szuverén adósság válság, az európai bankunió régóta halogatott reformja és a fiskális politika integrációjának hiánya áll. A migrációs válság oka főként a korábban nem tapasztalt mértékű menekültáradat, amelynek hátterében a küldő országok romló gazdasági (Koszovó, Albánia, Banglades, Pakisztán) és biztonsági (Szíria, Irak, Afganisztán) helyzete áll. A különböző történelmi és kulturális tapasztalatokkal bíró tagállamok társadalmai (a volt gyarmat­tartók és a poszt-kommunista félperiféria) eltérő módon reagáltak a kihívásra, ami aláásta az európai szolidaritást, felerősítve a korábban is létező feszültségeket.

The 2021–2027 Multiannual Financial Framework: Where are we now?

In May 2018 the European Commission presented its draft proposal for the next 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) which provided the framework on which negotiations between all EU actors (Commission, Parliament and Council) have been based. Major adjustments were expected since the United Kingdom—which contributed to the EU’s budget by roughly EUR 12 billion per year—ceased to be part of the EU and will stop contributing its share of the EU’s outstanding commitments and liabilities from 1 January 2021.

The Global Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Selected Analyses by the Antall József Knowledge Centre Research Team

The unprecedented extent of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19 or also referred to as SARS-CoV 2) caught most of the experts by surprise. From its first appearance in late 2019 in Asia to its quick spread to other continents in early 2020 the pandemic made an unprecedented mark on global affairs in the 21st century. The researchers of the Antall József Knowledge Centre produced a set of short analyses in the past months that take a specific look at the widespread effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. From international relations to the future of the tourism and fashion industry, from the Middle East to the Western Balkans the prolonged presence of the virus is and will affect a large segment of our political, economic and social discourse.

A COVID-19 járvány globális hatásai

Az Antall József Tudásközpont kutatócsapatának válogatott elemzései

A legtöbb szakértőt meglepetésként érte a globális koronavírus (COVID-19, SARS-CoV 3) járvány példátlan ütemű elterjedése. 2019 végén való ázsiai megjelenését követően a járvány hamar elérte a világ távoli szegleteit is 2020 első felében, példátlan mértékben befolyásolva mindennapjainkat. Az Antall József Tudásközpont kutatói az elmúlt hónapokban rövid elemzéseket készítettek, amelyek egyes konkrét kérdésekben vették górcső alá a COVID-19 járvány széles körű hatásait. A nemzetközi kapcsolatoktól kezdve a turisztikai és divatipar jövőjéig, a Közel-Keleten át a Nyugat-Balkánig a vírus várhatóan hosszan eltartó jelenléte mély hatást fog gyakorolni a politikai, gazdasági és társadalmi diskurzusok döntő többségére.

Globális demográfiai kilátások 2020

Demográfiai perspektívák

Az elmúlt évtizedekben a világ népességének példátlan növekedését tapasztalhattuk meg. Míg 1974-ben bolygónk lélekszáma 4 milliárd, 1999-ben 6 milliárd, idén pedig 7,8 milliárd főtt tett ki, addig a közeljövőben a globális népesség meg fogja haladni a 8 milliárd főt. Ez a gyors növekedés a kevésbé fejlett nemzeteket fogja leginkább érinteni; ezzel szemben a gazdaságilag fejlett államokban világszerte – kölcsönösen összehangolt trendek miatt – a népesség rohamos csökkenése lesz tapasztalható.

The national, European and global future of the United Kingdom following Brexit

Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on 31 January 2020 that, as per his pre-election promise, he “got Brexit done.” After three years of tiring negotiations, the United Kingdom ceased to be a member state of the European Union. According to the plans, the still ongoing transition period would end with a UK-EU agreement on 31 December 2020. At the same time, the transition period puts London into a delicate situation, as it is no longer part of the EU, has no say in its decisions, but is still obliged to align with its rules, while also remaining member of the single market and customs union. It is no coincidence then that the British government has emphasised the importance of negotiating a trade deal with the EU before the end of the transition period.

Outlook 2021

Perspectives for the Next Year from the Antall József Knowledge Centre Research Team

From our home region to East Asian, from both sides of the Atlantic to the Middle East, the research team of the Antall József Knowledge Centre sum up the major events shaping 2020, while looking ahead to the challenges of 2021.

Italy in the era of COVID-19 pandemic

Let’s put Europe’s Sick Man back on its Feet

September marks the first year in office of the second Conte government. The frail Italian coalition executive, born out of necessity at the end of a very turbulent summer, although still including the Five Stars Movement (M5S) as its largest party, took a totally different political direction from the previous “green-yellow” governing experiment. In fact, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, despite being once again at the head of a populist-led coalition, has succeeded in giving his executive a more moderate mark, marginalising the most radical elements inside the M5S and shifting the centre of gravity of the government more to the centre-left.