On 11 May 2021, the Antall József Knowledge Centre hosted the second instalment of the Central European Visions Conference 2021: Implementations of the Three Sees Initiative. The First Panel, entitled “Past, Present, and Future of the Three Seas Initiative” reviewed the development of the initiative. The opening remarks were made by the moderator Péter Dobrowiecki, Head of Research at the Antall József Knowledge Centre, initiating the conversation by assessing the current status of the cooperation.

Speakers of the panel were Péter Sztáray, State Secretary for Security Policy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary, Pawel Jablonski, Undersecretary of State for Economic and Development Cooperation, Africa and the Middle East at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland, and Ian Brzezinski, Resident Senior Fellow of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council.

State Secretary Sztáray mentioned the missing infrastructure in the north-south relation and highlighted the Hungarian interests, which are equal treatment, transparency and the support of the European Union and, primarily due to its economic embeddedness in the region, the assistance of Germany. According to the State Secretary, a stronger and more competitive Central European region would be in Berlin’s benefit. The U.S. supply of liquefied natural gas through the Krk Terminal in Croatia has a historical relevance; therefore, the extension of this LNG terminal would be essential in order to ensure the energy security of Hungary.  Like Poland, Hungary also offered Budapest to become the headquarters of the Three Sees Permanent Secretariat and stressed our support for such institution. The primary goals are to connect surrounding countries, diversify our energy dependence, and provide a reliable and modern IT sector. The possible future inclusion of the Western Balkans poses several challenges, as achieving political and economic stability is the priority in the region. Furthermore, expansion of the Initiative should only be an option once it is firmly established.

Pawel Jablonski started his intervention by stating that the north-south connectivity is 30 years behind due to the soviet legacy. He emphasised that it takes longer to travel in the north-south relation than in the west-east axis due to the lack of infrastructure. Attracting partners from outside the Initiative requires the separation of political and economic issues to strengthen the trust of investors. The Undersecretary emphasised Poland's role in supporting north-south connectivity. He is looking forward to the results of the next meeting among the 12 Three Sees member states, in Sofia, Bulgaria.

According to Ian Brzezinski, the Three Sees Initiative is an unprecedented regional enterprise rooted in the region. The Initiative should remain a local project; full membership of countries from outside the area would undermine the efficiency of the project. Important to mention that U.S. support requires equal amount of investment from countries of the region as well, according to their capacities. It was the Trump administration that reinforced the Initiative; however, it holds bipartisan support from the United States Congress. Moreover, President Biden, has also ensured continued support for the CEE region early in his presidency.

The second panel focused on the question of how the Three Seas Initiative can contribute to energy security in Central Europe. The participants were HE Richard Morningstar, Founding Chairman, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council, Ágnes Törőcsik, a Senior Research Associate at the Regional Center for Energy Policy Research, and Agata Łoskot-Strachota, Research Fellow, Centre for Eastern Studies. The first, introductory remarks were made by the moderator of the discussion Péter Stepper, Senior Research Fellow at the Antall József Knowledge Centre. He introduced our distinguished guests as well.

According to HE Richard Morningstar, Founding Chairman of the Global Energy Center at the Atlantic Council, this initiative could decrease dependence on Russian oil and gas in the region, regardless of the completion of the Nordstream 2 project. It could be the tool for balancing the influence of Russia and China as well. The Biden administration is fully committed to the initiative, and Ambassador Morningstar also underlined bipartisan support from the U.S. Congress. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation made an additional 300-million-dollar investment in the Three Seas Found. Ambassador Morningstar emphasised that in line with the U.S. financial support, all Central-Eastern European countries should invest accordingly. Moreover, HE Richard Morningstar mentioned a rarely stressed, though important topic, which is energy transition and energy security. The bigger the extent of energy transition is, the smaller the dependence on fossil fuels would be. Another issue is nuclear energy, and he expressed his hopes that U.S., Korean and Japanese technology could be implied in the region instead of Russian. Ambassador Morningstar emphasised that a safe CEE region is of Washington’s utmost interest, both from an energy and from a political standpoint.

Ágnes Törőcsik, Senior Research Associate at the Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research shed light on the fact, that CO2 emissions had declined in the EU and in the CEE region already, prior to the coronavirus crisis in 2020. The second trend she mentioned is that the production and the use of renewable energy sources are constantly increasing. In addition to that, according to a cumulated forecast, the natural gas consumption of the region would not increase by 2030, instead it would remain on the same level as it is today.  Despite some beliefs, our region is not lagging behind in the field of innovation and technology, not even compared to Germany for instance.

Agata Łoskot-Strachota, underlined that Poland is committed to the north-south hydrogen highway project and in her opinion the use of the existing infrastructure for different, new purposes is also worth considering. However, the future role of hydrogen raises questions as well. Moreover, she sees it an advantage that the framework for investing has become more unified and aligned with EU standards. According to her finding, energy security for Central-Eastern Europe means that every country in the region adjusts their own energy transition strategy to their individual needs and opportunities.

The event was realised with the support of the Prime Minister’s Office of Hungary and the Bethlen Gábor Foundation.